Nate Silver bemoans the difficulty with accurate polling in Alaska.

Courtesy of TPM:  

It is one of a handful of races that could determine which party controls the Senate next year, but analysts -- including the veritable Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight -- agree that the polling in the Alaska Senate race is an absolute mess. 

It's nobody's fault. Just a historical fact. But it complicates the process of capturing the dynamics of the battle between Republican Dan Sullivan and incumbent Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK). 

"Alaska is a hard state to poll accurately," Silver wrote in his Sunday review of the polling there. He also concluded that in seven statewide races since 2000, Alaska polling has overestimated the Democratic candidate by 7.2 points compared to election day returns. 

The problem, as best that experts can figure it, is the low-response rate that plagues pollsters everywhere -- but has an outsized impact in a state with such a small (730,000) and transient population. 

Whatever the reasons, the bottom line is that the electoral picture is decidedly fuzzy in one of the most important elections of the year.

Silver is essentially playing a tune that many of us up here in the Great Land are all too familiar with.

Because our population is diverse and far flung it makes getting an accurate read close to impossible.

However what is also true is that Alaska has a long history of loyalty to their Senators and Representatives, which goes to explain how Don Young has remained in office for so many years, and unless there is a federal prosecution or scandal involving Mark Begich he may simply find himself back in Washington due to name recognition and a lack of a good reason NOT to send him back.

Begich has deep roots here in the state, and a name that is well respected by many.

That, more than ad campaigns and buckets of money, may be the factors that have the biggest impact on the voters.